The rumor mill was running the last few days saying that the Mets will make a trade a good chunk of their farm system to the the Minnesota Twins for Johan Santana. Rumored to be in play are outfielders Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez, and pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
Omar has said in the past that he wouldn't include both Gomez and Martinez in the same deal. Looks like things have changed. If Omar included both Gomez and Martinez and all three pitchers, it would basically wipe out the farm system. This is on top of having to sign Santana to at least a $100 million deal. Is Omar crazy?
In a word: NO! Omar needs to make the fans forget 2007. The Mets need a legitimate shot to win in 2008 and a good team when they move into the new stadium in 2009. The offence is more than enough, what the Mets need is a stopper, an ace. Someone who can win 3 games in a 7 game series.
The Mets would be giving up a lot, but it would make them a very serious contender to win in 2008 and 2009. Without a solid 20 game winning starter the Mets are fooling themselves, as they were in 2007 and 2006.
Let's explore the deal and what it means.
First signing Santana. Omar of course will not make the trade if a deal is not possible with Santana. That is just money. The Mets have a lot of it from SNY, 20% ticket increase, and freeing up the contracts of Glavine in 2008 and Delgado in 2009. Wright and Reyes are comparative bargains, only Beltran stands out as a high salary. Santana will push the Mets closer to the payroll luxury tax, but Omar can get creative.
Gomez and Martinez. Both a Reyes in training. Both under 20 years old. Figure statistically one will grow into a rock star in 3-4 years. There will be a hole in the outfield when Alou retires, but Endy Chavez is a good everyday candidate and only 30 years old. Free agents or trades can fill the other hole when Church flames out.
Pitching. If Santana is signed, let's look at the staff and their age on Open Day 2008:
Johan Santana: 29 years old
John Maine: 26 years old
Oliver Perez: 26 years old
Mike Pelfrey: 24 years old
Pedro Martinez: 36 years old
That is a very young rotation! Your top end of the rotation (1-2-3) will give you over 50 wins a year until 2011. Giving up some pitching prospects is actually ok as long as you can replace Pedro in 2009 via a trade or free agency and potentially Pelfrey if he does not deliver. Since Pedro and Pelfrey are the back end of the rotation, replacing them are cheap and easy.
If Omar makes this trade, he can then look for one more bullpen arm and call it a successful winter. The rest is up to Willie and the players.
Posted by Steve in New York