 Thursday, December 06, 2007
Why is Santana still available? Did Smith overplay his hand?
A report by the AP said that the Mets still have a shot at Johan Santana. Sure they have a shot, but it is a long one, the official Steve and the Tank odds are on opening Day 2008 Santana will be on the following teams:
Red Sox 2-1
Twins 3-1
Yankees 4-1
Mets 8-1
Other 9-1
That said, if the Twins wanted to deal him, how come a deal is not in the works now? Look how fast the Florida-Detroit blockbuster deal took, maybe 48 hours? I think the a deal on Santana is taking so long for a few reasons.
First Twins GM Bill Smith is new and proceeding cautiously. While that may be the case it is more likely another 2007 off-season player overplaying his hand. Santana has a no-trade clause and will be demanding big money in the 72 hour window after the trade to lock up a long term Barry Zito type of deal. Only a few teams have that kind of money and tradable talent and they are the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and to some degree Chicago Cubs. So just like ARod's agent Scott Boras, Smith may have overplayed his hand demanding Ian Kennedy from the Yankees, Bill Smith maybe making a similar mistake. By causing the Yankees to bail out, the price suddenly dropped (the Yankees are usually the highest bidder).
Let's look at this from a simple market economy point of view. Limited supply (only one Johan Santana) and limited demand (only a few teams can afford him.) Also, it is highly likely that Santana will leave after 2008, so now is the time to trade him when his value is the greatest. Smith has to unload Santana this off-season, despite what he tells the media. With the removal of the Yankees (at least for now) and only a few teams in the running, it is now a little more of a buyers market due to less teams pushing up the price and time running out for Smith. If can you make the Twins sweat by waiting, the demands from the Twins will come down. If the Yankees and Mets deal for pitchers like Haren and Bedard that leaves the Twins with one legitimate suitor, the team from the original list that needs Santana the least. The World Champion Boston Red Sox.
Theo Epstein is no fool, he knows that waiting is in his best interest. Don't expect to see the Red Sox to move too quickly in order to force the pitching desperate Mets and Yankees to give up and go after someone else like Haren or Bedard. If the Mets and Yankees make their moves soon, expect there to be the fear of God in Bill Smith and a hat in hand phone call to Theo Epstein.
One thing, this is sure fun to watch.
Posted by Steve (studying for MBA finals) in New York
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