 Friday, August 24, 2007
The Mets and Yankees Stretch Run
There are five weeks left in the season. It's do or die. I like the Mets and Yankees chances, God Willing, touch wood, lucky rabbit's foot, etc.
The Mets have the advantage because Pedro and Lo Duca are on the way back from injury. Hammel is on the DL for the Phillies and the Braves keep sputtering even though Texeira has hit ten home runs after the trade from Texas. The NL Central is almost laughable. Its parity makes the NFL look unbalanced. The Cardinals are only 3.0 games back and two games below .500. As I wrote a while back, the Padres concern me and I don't know what the deal with the Dbacks are. Webb's scoreless inning streak finally ended. Anyway, October is a whole different season.
As for the Yankees, they are control their destiny but have no margin for error. Two games behind the Mariners for the Wild Card who are coming to town in early September for a three game set. Five games behind the Red Sox for the AL East and have six head to head games.
Steve recently pointed out that the Yankees beat teams with bad records which you are supposed to do. They also have success against good teams like sweeping the Indians at home and winning three out of four against the Tigers last weekend. Granted, losing two out of three to the Angels, especially Monday night was bad. Mussina's loss on Tuesday was his worst since 1995. If Pettitte wasn't scheduled to pitch next Tuesday against the Red Sox, I would sit Mussina possibly for the rest of the season.
I like the Yankees chances, especially against the Mariners have 20 against .500 teams (as do the Yankees) but 10 of those 20 games are against the Angels. If the Angels and Mariners split those ten games, all the Yankees have to do is go 6-4 or better. Furthermore, eight of the Mariners last 11 games are against the Angels and Indians in the last 11 days of the season. Those games will mean lots.
Posted by a cautiously optimistic in NY.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Where will A-Rod Play in 2008?
A-Rod is at the peak of his career and may opt out of his contract at the end of the year.
Steve thinks he'll be in Boston but I think he'll remain a Yankee because the Yankees would be on the hook for $30 million that Rangers owner Tom Hicks is still on the hook for. A-Rod's super agent, Scott Boras, is an expert at getting maximum value. Forget $27-8 million that Steve has him getting with the Red Sox, think closer to $32 million and possibly as high as $35-36 million per year. If you flipped burgers for a living and wanted to jump from MacDonald's to Burger King, Boras is so good that he would get you six figures instead of minimum wage. Granted, a slight exaggeration but not much.
If A-Rod doesn't stay in pinstripes, he'll end up in the following places in decreasing order of probability:
(a) Chicago Cubs: Lou Pinella is like a father to him.
(b) Anaheim Angels: A-Rod's mom lives in SoCal so he could move there to be closer to her. If A-Rod's marital issues continue, this option may increase in probability.
(c) Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox may get involved but only to drive up the price on the Yankees. The Red Sox already pay the highest ticket prices in the league and owner John W. Henry would be hard pressed to jack them up again for baseball and possibly personal reasons. You think Yankee tickets were expensive. In May 2002, a face value bleacher's ticket at Fenway was $20 while only $8 at the Stadium. This was before the Red Sox did the unthinkable and unwriteable in 2004 and increased prices again.
Furthermore, Mr. Henry is a hedge fund billionaire but is taking it on the chin like many of contemporaries if you have been following the recent financial news. According to a review of his funds recent statements, his Financial and Metals Portfolio is down 11.18% Est 2007 or Year To Date (YTD), Strategic Allocation Program is down 8.64% YTD, International Foreign Exchange Program is down 15% YTD, Global Diversified is down 18.53% YTD, JWH GlobalAnalytics is down 6.41% YTD, respectively. (Source: JWH Investment Programs and Performance, please click on "View Program Details" and "Performance Data". Though Mr. Henry is a hero of mine for being a Missouri farm boy made good, I am not an investor in any of Mr. Henry's funds.)
Bottom Line: Billionaires stay billionaires by using Other Peoples Money (OPM). In this case, it's ticket and other baseball revenue, NOT their own money. Mr. Henry would not be the first hedge fund baseball owner to run into difficulties in the A-Rod sweepstakes. This all started when Rangers owner Tom Hicks who took a bath in Latin America a few years ago and he had to unload A-Rod to cut expenses. The Red Sox already spent $52+ million to negotiate the Matsuzaka's contract before this season. Instead of going after A-Rod, expect the Red Sox to go after Miguel Tejada if the Orioles have a fire sale and/or if Tejada really wants out. Tejada is 14 months younger and millions cheaper. That's music to any billionaire's ears.
Posted by the Tank in NY.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
The Rocket is Worth Every Penny
Steve recently made some compelling points about A-Rod and the Rocket. I'll deal with the Rocket today.
Is the Rocket worth it? Mike and I say yes while Steve disagrees.
Yes, I agree with Steve that you can find a AAA pitcher to get you five victories. However, a AAA pitcher can not bring the Yankees the gravitas that Roger Clemens and his seven Cy Youngs contain. It's hard to quantify the exact return of Clemens return but I think it is safe to say Mr. Steinbrenner have already made the money back in increased ticket sales, advertising, and merchandise revenue. Furthermore, Clemens has and will be teaching young pitchers like Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, etc. about working hard and preparing in the years to come. No AAA pitcher can do that.
Since I am 20 game Yankee ticket holder, I don't have much choice about how my ticket revenue money is spent but was escastic when I heard the news of Rocket's return. It gave the Yankees hope to salvage an otherwise "lost" season which I never conceded unlike other pundits. Clemens was and is a very expensive but necessary band-aid.
Posted by the Tank in NY.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Pedro throws 72 pitches
With Rick Peterson there for moral support, Pedro Martinez allowed two unearned runs in five innings yesterday in a very impressive rehab outing for single A St. Lucie. In another piece of good news, in the same game, Endy Chavez also went 3-for-4 and scored a run in St. Lucie's 4-3 win. Pedro may need another rehab start before coming back to Shea. Maybe he and Endy can start on the single A Brooklyn Cyclones so all of New York can come out to cheer them on! Hopefully Endy and Pedro will be back in Flushing soon. Posted by Steve in New York
Monday, August 20, 2007
Carlos Zambrano signs 91.5 Million Extension-The Problem with Mets' Starting Pitching
Carlos Zambrano has signed a 5 year extension with the Cubs, removing another starting pitcher from the market. Zambrano is young (26) and is good for 200+ innings and 15+ wins. The Mets are in trouble moving forward with starting pitching. With Glavine likely to retire at the end of this year (and definitely after next), Pedro a question mark, and Pelfrey still developing, the Mets all of a desperately need some young reliable starting pitching-and there is none to be found.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Is The Rocket Worth It?
This weekend Roger Clemens won his 5th game this year as a Yankee and is now 5-5 in 2007 as a Yankee with a respectable 3.92 ERA. The questions is, is he worth it? The Yankees are closing in Seattle for the wild card, .5 behind. Over the last month, the Yankees made up a lot of ground. But is this really because as the Tank said after the all star break, the Yankees had a month of playing teams below .500. So the last month is not really the Yankees improving, but just playing bad teams. Despite a one game suspension for tossing a bean ball, Clemens has put up 5 wins, against 5 losses. Are those five wins, at $2,000,000 a win, worth it? Are those five wins that the team could not have gotten with a AAA pitcher for a fraction of the salary? Steve doesn't think so, his office mate Mike does, as does the Tank. We'll find out in the next month what happens. Posted By The Tank in New York.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Friday, August 17, 2007
Will A-Rod get greedy?
Yankees GM Brian Cashman said yesterday that if A-Rod elects to exercise his right to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, he will not return to the New York Yankees. If A-Rod opts out, he will then be eligible for free agency. Cashman said the Yankees will not participate in that bonanza. He also refuses to negotiate during the season, so the only scenarios are: A-Rod files for free agency and leaves the Yankees or he does not file and stays. The 10 days after the World Series will be the most dramatic filing period of all time. The Yankees are correct to play hardball, Boras has already said things like "A-Rod minimum is 32 million a year" so it is time to call Boras bluff and say you won't play that game. He either stays or goes. It is up to A-Rod. Does he get greedy? Steve's prediction: A-Rod will be in a Boston Red Sox uniform next year playing shortstop and earning about $28 million a year. Posted by Steve in New York
Thursday, August 16, 2007
NBA Highs and Lows
When we should be discussing the balance of power in the Eastern Conference and the entire NBA with the Celtics getting KG and Ray Allen, we have to witness renegade NBA referee, Tim Donaghy, sheepishly enter a guilty plea in court yesterday. Co-defendants entered innocent pleas. Let's see if names of players and other referees come up in this whole mess. Hopefully not.
Until then, I want focus more on if Reggie Miller is going to return to the NBA with the Celtics. If Reggie signs with the Celtics, the Celtics have to be favorites to win it all with three hungry veterans -- KG, Ray Allen, and Miller who have never won a championship ring.
More importantly, how will the Knicks, Nets, and the rest of the NBA respond?
Posted by an anxious Tank in NY.
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