A few weeks ago I wrote that the Mets season was over. Yesterday I told Jack that I have started to watch cricket. The clubhouse is a funeral home I have been told. Players are openly begging Omar to make a move. Omar has two decisions, buy or sell. Here is the case for both.
The Case to Buy
This is New York, you have to win today. New stadium with long lines at the expensive shake shack and parking costs $10. The Phillies are banged up too and desperately need pitching. While the Marlins are up recently, the Mets are “only” 3 games out of first after the Yankee sweep and the last two losses. The rule of thumb while you have major injuries is to play at least .500 ball through the DL period and catch up when healthy. Most of the key players on the DL (Beltran, Reyes, Perez, Maine, etc) should be back before the trade deadline at the end of this month.
The case to buy says that while Putz and Delgado are out until at least August, we may see the return of Billy Wagner around then, eliminating the need for a set up man, just creating a need for a power bat (if you believe Maine and Perez will be effective in the second half). In theory the Mets have what other teams want: pitching. The Mets can get Alex Rios cheap and then try to add both Matt Holliday and Orlando Hudson. (Maybe not all at the trade deadline, one may come in the off season, like Hudson.) Unloading Evens for Rios and Church and Nieve/Parnell for Holliday. Billy Beane will make the Mets pay some of Church’s salary, but he loves guys like Church and Nieve. With Rios and Holliday and most of the team back from the DL, the Mets can have a good offensive punch with solid pitching. (However, to lure Holiday to a multi year deal after 2009, the Mets will have to bring in the right field wall. Note to Mets management: David Wright’s HR power is to right field.)
The Case to Sell
The Mets collapsed two years in a row in September and this year the collapse looks like it will happen in July. The Mets were 9-18 in June. I fear July will be worse.
While most players are due back from the DL, how effective will Reyes and Beltran be playing through the pain? You still need some pop in the lineup with Delgado gone. Holliday won’t want to come to a pitchers park, his agent will remind him of David Wright’s 4 home runs. The Mets also need a better rotation in addition to some help in the outfield since Perez is still a head case. What is your power rotation during a 7 game series, Johan Santana can’t pitch all 7 games?
As Omar says, there are 22 teams in the playoff hunt, so the trade prices have gone up. If the prices have gone up, maybe the Mets should start to think about 2010. In this market teams would pay top dollar for Livan Hernandez, Bobby Parnell, and Fernando Nieve. Even Ryan Church would fetch a nice premium. The Mets should consider trading Evans as well. Fetch Alex Rios and a ton of prospects that you can bring up in September as well as trade in the off season. During the off season you can even trade Jose Reyes for a rock star Santana kind of pitcher and some prospects.
As a lifelong Mets fan who is use to “waiting until next year,” Steve says sell. I am sure that the optimist Tank says buy. We’ll see what Omar does.
Posted by Steve in New York watching Cricket until 2010…